A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
